CHAIRMAN of the National Population Commission (NPC), Eze Festus Odimegwu, stirred the hornet’s nest recently with criticisms of past headcounts in the country. The NPC boss, at a press conference in Abuja, attributed the seemingly intractable problems associated with the past censuses to distortions and sometimes falsification of figures to achieve selfish political goals. Ahead of the coming 2016 census, Odimegwu suggested that the key issues of religion and ethnicity should be included in the data form. Previous headcounts had excluded these two variables, with the support of the National Council of State.
Expectedly, Odimegwu’s comments, which covered all the past censuses, from the first one in 1861 to the most recent 2006 Census, which adjudged Kano State as the most populous state in the country, followed by Lagos, ruffled some feathers. Among those who took serious exception to his position is the Governor of Kano State, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso. The governor described the appointment of Odimegwu as a “mistake”, and suggested that he should be sacked. The president has since been reported to have querried the NPC boss.
Many individuals and associations have, however, thrown their weight behind Odimegwu’s statement and suggestion, saying he merely expressed the opinion of many Nigerians on the Achilles heels of headcounts in Nigeria.
As we pointed out in a recent editorial on the challenges of censuses in the country, Odimegwu has been bold and courageous on his postulations on census problems in the country. His immediate predecessor, Samu’ila Danko Makama, had also spoken in a similar vein few years ago.
However, perhaps Odimegwu should have been more circumspect in his utterances, considering the sensitivity of the population question in Nigeria and the weight of expectations of Nigerians from the commission which he heads. He would have been better off being reticent on the volatile issues of ethnicity and religion in headcounts in Nigeria in order not to erode people’s confidence in his impartiality. Statements like the ones he made in Abuja could jeopardize his efforts on the 2016 census, which is still three years away. The view that has been expressed in some quarters is that his position, even if true, is politically incorrect and inexpedient, coming from someone who has been charged with conducting a new census.
However, the position of the NPC boss might have been vindicated by the recent nullification of the 2006 headcount in 14 local councils of Lagos State, by the National Census Tribunal. The areas affected by the judgment are Amuwo-Odofin, Eti-Osa, Alimosho, Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, Surulere, Epe, Badagry, Ifako-Ijaiye, Apapa, Agege, Ojo, Ajeromi-Ifelodun and Ikeja councils.
It needs to be recalled that the Lagos State Government had, on behalf of 19 out of the old local government areas which covers 40 out of the present 57 councils in the state, petitioned the National Census Tribunal to nullify the 9,113,605 declared as the population of Lagos State by the NPC in the 2006 headcount based on alleged irregularities which purportedly resulted in the exclusion of some residents of Lagos from the exercise.
Clearly, the same anomalies could have happened in many other states across the country, which validates Odimegwu’s claims. Undoubtedly, quite a lot of our census figures have been manipulated to serve narrow political interests that defeat the real essence of census as a viable tool for economic planning for the country. The issues raised by the NPC chairman remain ever valid and relevant. We cannot in all sincerity make much progress if government and the institutions in charge of census fail to address the grey areas that have muddled up past headcounts in the country.
Nigeria, also, cannot build enduring infrastructure without accurate demographic data. We fully agree with the NPC boss that “it is either we do an accurate census or we will not do anything” meaningfully.
Odimegwu’s message is instructive, even if some are incensed by the messenger. The message is simple: we can no longer afford to have unreliable and controversial censuses. Although Odimegwu’s comments may have set the stage for those who are determined to challenge the 2016 headcount if it does not favour their interests, this is the time for all Nigerians to accept the need to redress all the shortcomings that have, for ages, eroded our efforts to have a credible and widely acceptable census.
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