With only three days to the presidential election holding Saturday, two more states have swelled the number of states nationwide whose majority votes have been secured by President Goodluck Jonathan and his ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
This is coming just as independent surveys have given Jonathan a 17 percent edge over his All Progressives Congress, APC opponent, retired General Muhammadu Buhari.
Last Monday, Nigerian Pilot reported the outcome of its nationwide Poll Survey on the March 29 presidential election with Jonathan leading the pack with overwhelming win in no fewer than 20 states while Buhari was projected to win in six states. The Poll Survey also rated the remaining states as too close to call.
But an updated version of the report last night showed that not only two more states, as Lagos and Nasarawa have been secured by the incumbent president, his likely showing in states like Oyo, Ogun, Niger and Kaduna States have improved tremendously that with little efforts, it could be an outright win for Jonathan.
According to the report, “Recent and consistent consultations and meetings President Jonathan has been having with stakeholders in the various states are paying off. For instance, he has held not less than 12 meetings apart from the pre-rally sessions with various strata of the electorate in Lagos, Bauchi, Kogi, Ogun, Oyo, with his deputy, Vice President Namadi Sambo as the arrow head in the thrust into the north with a lot of possibilities being thrown.”
The report added that the president and his party have received tremendous commitments from “the opinion shapers, moulders and decision makers in the various states,” and he is set to be returned to office.
Independent survey
According to the independent surveys, President Jonathan is set to defeat Buhari “with at least a margin of 17 percent at the presidential election scheduled to hold on Saturday, March 28, 2015.”
Contrary to earlier projections that General Buhari’s party (the APC) would capture, wholesale, the votes of the South-West geo-political zone, the reality on ground today, as revealed by an independent survey, is that Jonathan has unlocked the pathway to even out votes in that region.
These are few of the highlights of the survey by Forward Magazine, a research and publishing company since 1995, and Zevland Ventures Limited, a leading research and security consultancy firm, on the chances of President Jonathan and General Buhari.
Using 24,000 sample size across 33 states and the FCT to decide through an Opinion Survey who will win the presidential election, the outcome of the research exercise was based on three critical factors:
• The respondents’ views on the achievements or performance of the president from 2011 to date and to see how this can affect his chances in the coming election;
• The correlation between the outcome of the 2011 presidential election and the likely outcome of the 2015 presidential election; and
• A detailed study of the various dynamics that have taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 Presidential Election.
According to the survey, “When asked which of the two main political parties they preferred, 65 percent of the respondents opted for PDP while 31 percent favoured the APC; one percent went for other parties while the remaining two percent went for none of the parties.
“Again, the respondents, when asked how they would rate Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s performance in 10 critical areas namely: Security, Agriculture, Power, Education, Transportation, Aviation, Press Freedom, Fight against Corruption, Human Rights and Job Creation, Women Empowerment, they scored the PDP flag-bearer as follows:
“When the respondents were asked if they would vote for Dr Goodluck Jonathan based on their responses to the previous questions, 62.2 percent answered in the affirmative, and 29.7 percent in the negative, while 4.1 percent were undecided.
“On the question whether General Muhammadu Buhari is considered more capable in addressing the critical issues in the areas listed, 30.7 percent answered in the affirmative while 65 percent answered in the negative. Another 4.3 percent of the respondents were undecided. From the foregoing, it was becoming visible the likely direction of their votes.”
The survey report highlighted the dynamics that have taken place since the 2011 election and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
According to the report, “Issues addressed here include: (i)The effect of intra-party conflicts; (ii) The effect of mass decampment/
“Each of these issues will either have a positive or negative impact on the candidates. For example, the mass decampment of some PDP Governors and party stalwarts to the APC may affect the PDP negatively in some states.
“However, this likely set-back may be cancelled out by some high-profile decampment into PDP such as that of Governor Mimiko of Ondo State and those of former Governors Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa, Ibrahim Shekarau, etc.
“Also, the effect of the conflict between the Fulani cattle rearers and indigenous farmers mainly in the North Central states and Taraba State in North East may likely cost Buhari, who is a Fulani, some important votes in the areas concerned.
“Equally, the increase in bloody clashes between the Hausa Fulani and the people of Southern Kaduna might likely tilt a win in favour of Jonathan.
“The volume of endorsements by traditional rulers and ethnic nationality groups among others in the South East, South-South and South West has enhanced President Jonathan’s chances.
“Another critical factor examined which may work in favour of the president is the recent and aggressive deployment of the social media network which now ensures a wider reach and delivery of its programmes to the people. Hitherto, the APC was in control and more effective in the use of the social media.
“In conclusion, based on our findings as enumerated above, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, stands an excellent chance of winning the 2015 presidential election by at least a 17 percent margin over his closest rival.”
It should be noted that the report did away with the dubious format of allocating states to a candidate based on some illusory expectations. The report is the outcome of extensive field research with real people over a period of four weeks – post postponement.
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