General elections are almost exactly a year away, since the Electoral Act requires a six-month period between the polls and swearing-in date of May 29, 2015.
Expectedly, the political fever is everywhere, considering the fact that the polity has somehow inadvertently berthed at a two-party system, with the morphing of the opposition parties into the All Progressives Congress (APC).
With the South West-dominated defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) as one of the legacy parties of APC, the mega opposition party has naturally jumped into the lead in Lagos, arguably the most populous state in the country. It became the ruling party, which is also expected to preserve its winning streak that started in 1999.
Two major central issues are dominating Lagos politics in the build-up to the polls and they are mainly about the ruling APC.
They are the twin issues of religion and indigeneship. However, religion has never been an issue in Yoruba politics. However, the indigeneship of two top shots, who arguably hold sway in the party in the state, has been called to question. They are allegedly not sons-of-the-soil.
The cacophony over the two issues, which were believed to have been deliberately generated by certain pressure groups in the state to force the hands of APC in the picking of its next governorship candidate, has got the party defending itself vigorously. This is especially on the issue of religion, since the issue of qualification for office on the basis of indigeneship is relatively easier to meet under the extant electoral laws.
The party’s spokesperson, Joe Igbokwe, in his defence of the party, said: “If we have a good candidate from the Muslim community, we will pick him. If we have a good candidate from the Christian community, we will pick him. There is no bias at all.
The focus is to get the best from the lot. The person can come from anywhere; he can be neither Muslim nor Christian.”
Insiders in the party were, however, of the opinion that the issue of Fashola’s successor, since the odds favour the APC to win the governorship election, would not be as simplistic as Igbokwe sounded, pointing at several dynamics that could end up determining who the party’s candidate will be.
While almost all the interested aspirants have been reluctant in openly declaring their ambition, a couple of them have been projected into the race. And interestingly, none has denied his ambition. According to them, they were waiting on God to direct their paths.
Such projection has seen the likes of the state Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Dr Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat; speaker of the House of Assembly, Hon. Adeyemi Ikuforiji; Senator Ganiyu Olanrewaju Solomon, Senator Gbenga Ashafa and the National Legal Adviser of the party, Dr Muiz Banire, being lined up as the front-runners in the Alausa job. Interestingly, they are all Muslims.
While the party battles with its first-teamers belonging to a religion, it has a bigger headache with internal wrangling as being witnessed in other states in the South-West - Oyo, Ogun and Ekiti - over platforms and governorship ambitions, with many insiders blaming the National Leader, Senator Bola Tinubu, for paying too much attention to national politics of consolidating
APC for possible take-over of government at the centre while his South-West base is gradually falling apart.
Though expected to play a major role in who will eventually emerge as the party’s standard-bearer in Lagos, two aspirants revealed that the scenario that played out during the emergence of Babatunde Fashola when he was reportedly single-handedly picked by Tinubu might not be possible again for two reasons: One, the presence of other heavyweights from other legacy parties like the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Two, the increasing cacophony for primaries by many party leaders even within the old ACN fold, as well as threat to defect and make things difficult for the APC if Tinubu insisted on imposition of a candidate.
An aspirant who craved anonymity said: “We have to stop imposition of candidates if Nigerians would take us seriously as a democratic party. You can see that nobody complained in Anambra because Ngige won through an open primary election. The by-election we participated in, in Jigawa for the House of Assembly also saw our candidate emerge through primaries. I am sure even Asiwaju knows the dynamics have changed now. Imposition cost us Ondo. It may cost us Ekiti because Opeyemi Bamidele would have kept quiet if the governor had been allowed to defeat him through a primary election. PDP is waiting for a false move on our part in Lagos and it has plenty of largesse to attract disgruntled APC members. The mass appeal of Asiwaju’s days is no longer there. He should allow all aspirants to go to the field. That is the popular demand of party loyalists today.”
Expectedly, all the front-running projected aspirants belong to different caucuses of the party and have intimate relationship in one way or the other with the ultimate godfather, Tinubu, while the demand for primaries is reportedly targeted at Governor Fashola who is being accused of deliberately emasculating the major support pillars of the party at the grassroots, in order to allegedly impose a successor with Tinubu’s ratification.
Fashola had reportedly settled for Hamzat on his five-man list, with Tinubu allegedly endorsing, leading to a frenzy of political activities by different camps to frustrate the anointment.
Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat
Considered the deepest pocket among the leading aspirants, a combination of support from Fashola and Tinubu would move him closer to the ticket than others, but he would be failing the twin issue of religion and indigeneship. He is described as a very brilliant man with consummate capacity for hard work. However, apart from being a Muslim faithful, his father, Oba Olatunji Hamzat, was recently openly coronated as the traditional ruler of Afowowa in Ogun State, putting the commissioner’s state of origin beyond doubt. Chairman, Lagos State Internal Revenue Service, Tunde Faula, is the alleged option B for Hamzat’s controversial candidacy.
The anger against Fashola on alleged lack of funding of the party could also harm either Hamzat or Faula, if imposed. The alleged crippling of the Highway Managers, headed by Tinubu’s ally, Reverend James Odunmbaku, an agency that the party used in employing thousands of Lagosians which gave it mass appeal, is a major sore point for many party members. For now, Tinubu has reportedly asked council chairmen to be working for Hamzat, but those in Tinubu’s inner caucus are saying it is too early in the day to take the directive hook, line and sinker.
Adeyemi Ikuforiji
Funding is believed to be the least of problems for the speaker of the state House of Assembly for the gubernatorial project. His reported affinity with Bourdillion is also counting for him. Insiders also say that he has the support of the members of the assembly. His main albatross is the corruption case brought against him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), for which he has been standing trial. He is also perceived not to be too popular in his native Epe. He had to be brought by Tinubu to Ikeja to contest for the assembly seat that earned him the speakership. Without home support, his ambition may just be billowing in the sky.
Ganiyu Solomon
Senate Minority Whip, Senator Ganiyu Olanrewaju Solomon, is the first of the intending governorship hopefuls in the state to unequivocally indicate his intention in the race. And he is unarguably the most experienced of the aspirants in terms of political qualification.
A former local government chairman in Mushin area of the state, former member of the House of Representatives and two-term senator representing Lagos West, Solomon is no doubt a quintessential politician with ties to the grassroots as his greatest strength.
And given his streak of achievements since his days at the local government through the House of Representatives to the Senate, especially in the area of empowerment, mostly done through the GOS Foundation, an initiative conceived to help lift the under-privileged in the society, Solomon has maintained an uncommon bond both with the low and top echelon of the society.
But in spite of his strengths, Solomon’s major weakness, observers reckoned, could be located mostly in his maverick nature.
As an independent-minded politician, the political elite are believed to fret over his capacity to carry on regardless of what they think and this is believed to have remained his undoing in the pursuit of his career.
Gbenga Ashafa
He was projected into the race through his body language. His major strength is Tinubu, who propelled him to the Senate but he is generally seen as an outsider in the race since there is nothing on the ground in terms of structures to justify vested interest in running. He cannot also be pin-pointed as being in charge of any major caucuses in the party.
Muiz Banire
The former Commissioner for Environment is regarded as an egghead in the party, being the National Legal Adviser. He is also a Bourdillion person. He is the brains behind LASTMA, KAI, LAMATA, BRT, among others. Tinubu and his inner caucus are said to be enamoured of his intelligence and comportment. They are reportedly not comfortable with his frankness and openness.
Being seen as someone that could not be trusted to remain under control may affect his chances. The only unanswered question that is said to be standing between him and Bourdillion’s endorsement is, “can we trust him to be loyal?”
His camp has also reportedly moved ahead of others with Plan B, if the agitation for a Christian son of the soil would not go away, by reportedly putting a former Commissioner for Health, Dr Leke Pitan, on stand-by as Muiz’s replacement. Having handled almost all the litigation leading to the emergence of Rauf Aregbesola as governor of Osun State and serving together as commissioners in Tinubu’s cabinet, Muiz also has a political synergy with the Osun-born strong-man of Alimoso politics. With Aregbesola arguably having Tinubu’s ears like no other person, the governor may be putting in more than a word for his ally.
Igbokwe was right that “when the appropriate time comes, the qualified candidate will emerge,” which means the governorship field is yet to take shape for APC but the party cannot afford to toy with tough decisions ahead of it, considering the determination of PDP to wrest the state from its grip, by eyeing strong possible candidates like veteran Musiliu Obanikoro and erstwhile APC’s sweet-heart Jimi Agbaje, who could easily help PDP meet the Christian son-of-the-soil demands and still remain a sellable candidate.
Source: Tribune
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