The trend from 1999 to date shows that in each election, at least 75 senators lost their bids to return to the 109-member Senate.
This was caused by various factors including falling out of favour with state governors, losing support of political parties, courting the fury of the voters and other reasons.
Ahead of the 2015 elections, 25 senators have already indicated interest to run for governor in their respective states, thereby leaving an opening for new people to fill the slots they occupy.
Another set of senators are likely to fall victims to the ambition of their home state governors who are ending their two terms and are angling to become senators.
No fewer than 16 outgoing governors have indicated their intention to stand for election as senators next year.
This will put the political future of serving senators from those senatorial districts in jeopardy.
At present there are eight former governors in the Senate.
Governors are powerful and they largely determine the order of things in their states. In a couple of states they will be pitted against powerful senators and the battle could be fierce.
An analysis of the attrition rate in the upper chamber indicates that of the 109 senators, only about 30 or even fewer were returned in the last three elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011.
In the present Senate, only Senate President David Mark and Chief Whip Bello Hayatu Gwarzo from Kano State remained from the 1999 class.
Gwarzo was defeated in 2007 elections but was able to reclaim his seat through the courts more than one and half years into tenure of the Sixth Senate, our correspondent reports.
In 2003, only 31 senators got re-elected and they include former Senate Presidents Adolphus Wabara and Ken Nnamani.
Others were Iya Abubakar, Jonathan Zwingina, Udoma Udo Udoma, David Brigidi, Daniel Saror, David Mark, Patrick Osakwe, Oserhiemen Osunbor and Fidelis Okoro.
Others are Francis Nzeribe, Ifeanyi Ararume, Ahmed Aruwa, Dalhatu Sarki Tafida, Tunde Ogbeha, Suleiman Ajadi, Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Abubakar Sodangi, Ibrahim Mantu, Martins Yellowe, John Azuta Mbata, Usman Albishir and Mamman Ali.
Only Niger and Zamfara states re-elected all their three senators in 2003. They are Isa Mohammmed, Idris Kuta, Nuhu Aliyu (Niger), and Lawal Shuaibu, Saidu Dansadau and Mohammed Anka (Zamfara).
In 2007, the attrition rate got worse as only 23 senators were returned, which represents less than 20 percent of the Senate.
They included Uche Chukwumerije, Jibril Aminu, Bob Effiong, David Mark, Omar Hambagda, Gregory Ngaji, Patrick Osakwe, James Manager, Julius Ucha, Ike Ekweremadu and Tawar Wada.
Others are Bello Hayatu Gwarzo, Kanti Bello, Mohammed Ahmed, Adeleke Mamora, Nuhu Aliyu, Gbenga Ogunniya, Abubakar Sodangi, Hosea Ehinlanwo, Iyiola Omisore, Lee Maeba and Umaru Dahiru.
No single state returned all its three senators in 2007.
However, in 2011, the number of returnees increased by 10, as 33 senators got re-elected.
Among those who returned in the last election are Nkechi Nwogu, Uche Chukwumerije, and Eyinnaya Abaribe all from Abia State which makes Abia and Niger the only two states to have re-elected all their three senators in two consecutive elections from 1999 to date.
Also on the list of 2011 returnees is Aloysious Etok from Akwa Ibom State who is already engrossed in a tussle over the Akwa Ibom North West Senatorial seat with Governor Godswill Akpabio, thereby putting his ambition of returning to the Senate in danger.
The list also includes Emmanuel Paulker, Heineken Lokpobiri, Goerge Akume, David Mark, Maina Ma’aji Lawan, Victor Ndoma-Egba, James Manager, Ehigie Uzamere, Ayogu Eze, Ike Ekweremadu and Chris Anyanwu.
Others are Abdulaziz Usman, Ahmed Makarfi, Atiku Bagudu, Smart Adeyemi, Gbenga Ashafa, Suleiman Adokwe, Dahiru Awaisu Kuta (who is also battling over his seat with Governor Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu), Zainab Kure and Gyang Dangton, who died in July 2012 in Plataea State violence.
Senators George Sekibo, Wilson Ake, Ahmed Maccido, Umaru Dahiru, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, Ahmad Lawan, Sahabi Ya’u and Ahmed Rufai Sani were among those who returned in 2011.
A few other lawmakers now in the Senate have been in the National Assembly since 1999 having first being elected into the House of Representatives.
They include Senator Ahmad Lawan from Yobe State who was in the House of Representatives from 1999-2007 and Senator Abdul Ningi who was in the lower chamber from 1999 to 2011, and got elected into the Senate in 2011.
Like Gwarzo, Ningi was out of the House for about half of the tenure of the last Assembly but got back to the lower chamber after a court judgment.
Also, Senators Hassan Barata (Adamawa), Sola Adeyeye (Osun), Victor Lar (Platuea), Ita Enang (Akwa Ibom), Bassey Otu (Cross Rivers), Ayo Adesuen (Oyo), Sadiq Yar’Adua (Katsina) and Emmanuel Aguariavwodo (Delta) were at one time or the other in the House of Representatives between 1999-2011. Barata had also been in the House of Representatives in 1992.
‘Old wine’
Speaking to Daily Trust on the implication of the high attrition rate in the National Assembly, Senate leader Victor Ndoma-Egba (PDP, Cross River) said the drawback is that the institutional memory of the legislature is lost and that in each session, lawmakers spend the large part of the tenure learning the ropes.
“Because of the peculiar nature of parliament, its institutional memory is the aggregate of the memory of its individual members. The more members that you lose, you lose to that extent the institutional memory,” Ndoma-Egba said.
“In parliament, members are trained and exposed at tax payers cost. Also, establishing networks for effectiveness to the constituents takes time.”
He added that by not re-electing lawmakers, Nigerian tax payers will have to put up with spending money every four years to train the new comers.
“Some get involved in international, continental and regional parliaments acquiring technical experience or expertise in specific areas and networks. All these are lost when they lose their seats at home and the country loses. Parliamentarians are like old wines, they get better with age,” he said.
Source: Daily Trust
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